10 Nations That Are Most at Risk From Climate Change
Environmental pollution and climate risks are often linked, and the same nations suffer from both. A new analysis shows that people in the Global South, especially those in Africa, are particularly vulnerable to this double burden.
A recent report by Maplecroft identified 10 nations that are most at risk from climate change. Two-thirds of them are in Africa.
1. Kenya
The African nation suffers from toxic air pollution caused by fine particulate matter blowing in from the Sahara and from local sources, like inefficient transport. It also is prone to flooding and food shortages as climate change causes the onset of droughts.
The country is home to many semi-nomadic herders who have little access to land, education or other services. Investing in community-based conservation initiatives and providing alternative income sources to herders could help make them more resilient to climate shocks.
Floods, typhoons and droughts take a heavier economic toll on lower-income nations that lack the resources to cope. A new analysis combines vulnerability to the effects of climate change with a country's ability to respond. Using data from Notre Dame's Global Adaptation Initiative and Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, here are the 10 nations that are most at risk.
2. Bangladesh
Almost two-thirds of Bangladesh lies below sea level, making the country vulnerable to ever-intensifying floods, erosion, tropical cyclones, storm surge, saltwater intrusion and varying rainfall patterns. The climate crisis is accelerating the loss of rural livelihoods, driving poorer Bangladeshis into unsafe migration to urban centers and pushing children into forced labour and early marriages.
Despite contributing relatively little to global greenhouse gas emissions, Bangladesh is at the front line of climate change. It is already battling the effects of disasters that have destroyed lives and pushed people to flee their homes, including this year's catastrophic flooding that submerged more than 94 percent of Sunamganj and its surrounding districts. Its people deserve better. The wealthy world must step up to help. This is a human rights and development imperative.
3. Niger
Niger is one of the most climate change-vulnerable countries in the world. The country relies on agriculture for livelihood and faces a host of climate risks that threaten its food security, including rising temperatures and more extreme weather events.
CCAFS has helped Niger build a national science-policy dialogue platform that brings together scientists and policy makers to share knowledge and advance climate-smart policies. It is also a member of the Climate-Smart Agriculture Alliance, which is working to improve farmers’ capacities to adapt to changing conditions and boost their economies.
Climate change in Niger is projected to affect people most directly through its effects on rain and river flows. The number of days with very heavy rainfall is expected to increase over the country under some scenarios, as well as the number of hot days per year, and heat-related mortality is projected to rise.
4. Vietnam
Vietnam’s long coastline and geographic characteristics make it particularly vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the country is prone to typhoons, floods and droughts. It is also experiencing rising sea levels.
The impact of natural disasters in the country causes significant losses and exacerbates poverty. These effects are especially felt by the poorest communities, as they lose income and assets. In addition, the disruption of life-support systems resulting from climate change impacts their access to food, water and shelter.
Furthermore, the increase in temperature can result in a decrease in rice production and higher levels of salinity in aquaculture ponds. This can cause economic damage to businesses and increase tropical diseases in the population. Moreover, the increasing frequency of floods and storms negatively affects agriculture and infrastructure in the country.
5. South Sudan
South Sudan is exposed to both long-term climate change trends like rising temperatures and short-term extreme climate events such as increased flooding. Up to 95% of the population depends on climate sensitive resources for their livelihoods. Climate change impacts increase competition for land and water resources – which can trigger conflict between pastoralists and farmers.
Floods caused by erratic seasonal rainfalls can devastate communities, while droughts and recurring conflict cause people to flee their homes. As a result, South Sudan is facing its worst humanitarian crisis since independence in 2013.
The government should invest in climate-smart agriculture and build seeds systems that are resilient to drought and floods; pursue flood-prevention solutions such as dykes and dams; and relocate communities away from riverbanks. It should also strengthen national capacity for adaptation planning and integrate climate change considerations into policies.
6. Central African Republic
One of the world’s least-developed countries, Central African Republic faces multiple climate and environmental hazards. They erode development gains and deepen child deprivations, such as from heat waves, droughts and flooding.
Fragile states experience higher losses from climate events than other countries. This reflects their geographic location in hotter regions, their dependence on rainfed agriculture and less capacity to manage risks.
Moreover, competition over natural resources and the resulting vulnerability undermines children’s rights and drives youth radicalization and recruitment into violent non-state armed groups. They also face high levels of poverty, weak governance and low capacities to respond to disasters, exacerbated by weak institutional arrangements that prevent the participation of women. Hence, a comprehensive, inclusive approach is needed. The NAP Global Network is supporting this effort by connecting four key themes, including food insecurity, malnutrition, infectious disease and climate change.
7. Chad
A combination of high poverty, frequent conflict and risk from both droughts and floods makes Chad the world’s most vulnerable country to climate change.
Rainfall is becoming more unpredictable in the Sahelian region, preventing the largely agrarian population from reaping enough harvests. In addition, the once-vast Lake Chad is shrinking yearly, affecting tens of millions who depend on its waters for fishing, farming and livestock watering.
To help combat these issues, local communities are collaborating with scientists to improve the traditional practices they use for growing crops and rehabilitating dry land. One such approach involves digging pits that retain water and planting crops in them. This technique, called Zai, helps to reduce climate vulnerability.
8. Ethiopia
Global risk analysis company Maplecroft analyzed each nation to determine its vulnerability to climate change and toxic pollution. Its assessment found that both the negative impacts of climate change and exposure to environmental pollution disproportionately affect low-income nations.
Floods, typhoons, droughts and landslides take a greater toll on poorer countries than wealthier ones because they lack the infrastructure needed to cope and often depend heavily on agriculture and natural resources for their economies.
The ongoing El Nino weather phenomenon has resulted in repeated crop failures and pushed more than 24 million Ethiopians into crisis or pre-famine levels of food insecurity. In addition, the country’s rapid population growth puts a strain on its natural resources. Approximately two-thirds of its citizens live in rural areas, where their livelihood depends on the seasonality of rain. They also rely on livestock for income.
9. Sudan
Climate change and related environmental degradation threaten human security, causing food shortages, water scarcity and exacerbated poverty. Disasters linked to climate change are already costing the global economy 520 billion dollars each year. More frequent and intense heatwaves, cyclones and floods aggravate conflict over land and resources, fueling mass displacement.
The Central Sahel region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Its history of political instability – and its dependence on agriculture as a source of livelihood – make it more susceptible to the effects of warming temperatures, droughts and extreme weather events.
Many of the countries that are most at risk from climate change have contributed little to its causes. This means they have few resources to adapt. But higher-income nations can invest in infrastructure to help them cope. And they have the option of reducing their carbon emissions.
10. Philippines
A country that is prone to tropical cyclones already, the Philippines faces increased risks from climate change because of the warming ocean. Its coastline will experience more frequent flooding and higher-intensity storm surges.
The repercussions will hit its poorest residents hardest, with 13.6 percent of the nation's GDP at risk if no action is taken. The World Bank warned that rising temperatures and extreme weather events could also cause the Himalayan glaciers to swell and flood 30-70 percent of the country's rivers, damaging agriculture and infrastructure.
Nations that are at the highest risk from climate change can reduce their vulnerability with investments in energy transition and disaster preparedness. These strategies are inherently linked, and a unified intervention framework will help to ensure that both climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction are considered when making decisions.
